Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo (PhD)
Debate is raging on social media on why Emmerson Mnangagwa congratulated Douglas Mwonzora, as the newly elected MDC T President. Some are saying Mwonzora is a puppet of Zanu PF while some Zanu PF stalwarts go further to say MDC Alliance is a puppet of the west, and life goes on like that.
The same Mnangagwa congratulated Nelson Chamisa when he ascended to MDC Alliance Presidency in 2018. Such petty discussions won’t get Chamisa anywhere near State House, especially now that he is operating in the grass, without any office. Chamisa needs to be a serious entity, otherwise sooner than later, he will be labelled a Micky mouse political party leader. A reminder to the opposition is that time is moving, and we are fast approaching 2023, and soon they will be history on the political arena. Some of the debates are not necessary, this is now beyond slogans, political and religious platitudes.
Chamisa needs to understand few nuggets:
1. The fraction which comprises Douglas Mwonzora, Thokozani Khupe, Morgan Komichi, Elias Mudzuri, and others constitute at least 20% of the 2014 structures.
2. In politics numbers don’t lie. The 20% will eat in the Chamisa territory.
3. What you are failing to read is that Zanu PF’s real target in 2023 is the Presidential vote. The presidential vote is very vital and critical for one to ascend to the top post. You need 50+1 votes to go to State House, and the Mwonzora factor will prevent Chamisa from having access to State House keys.
4. Let’s have a case study of Simba Makoni factor in 2008, where he pulled 8% to avoid Tsvangirai to get to State House. Welshman Ncube got ten (10) seats which could have easily gone to Tsvangirai to secure a 2/3 majority.
5. Spending the whole day insulting Mwonzora will not work, but rather provide Strategic Thinking around the current mess.
6. The fact of the matter is Douglas Togaraseyi Mwonzora will get not less than 100 000 votes, and that fraction alone plus the one for Khupe in Matebelaland will be enough to call it a day.
7. Whilst most of you are busy talking about Mwonzora failing to get a Parliamentary seat, the political matrix is not about Parliament only, but STATE HOUSE KEYS
7. Too many bootlickers around Chamisa, which he must get rid of if he wants to deal with fractures and rifts in the embattled MDC Alliance
8. If you study the Supreme Court judgment, the project was well crafted and schemed, and you may dismiss Douglas Mwonzora for now, but in politics, it’s not all about popularity, you need Strategic Intelligence to see things ahead of you.
9. Some may think Mnangagwa likes Khupe or Mwonzora. The answer is a big NO. It’s all about political interests. What suits them first, and it’s all about politics. In politics, it’s all about Strategy
10. Slogans have their own space, there is time to craft strategy and provide Strategic Thinking.
11. How many times have you seen Zanu PF posting their plans or preparations on social media? Opposition in Zimbabwe is too exposed and vulnerable to the system. Even the 1 Million campaign for youths, some of the plans are better off from the media space. Penetrate Strategically.
12. We are likely to have a 2013 scenario where even rigging won’t be spotted or traced.
13. Zanu PF does not lose elections consecutively.
14. Underestimate ED at your own peril. 2023 is done and dusted.
15. In as much as you may not like ED , the current Head of State, he is a crafter. “Haatyi uye haana nyadzi”, when he wants to strike, he does not hesitate.
16. In politics if you think of eating a dog, ibva wadya hono yacho. You must be fully equipped when you approach people like ED. Since 1980, he was in Government, he occupied Strategic state Government positions
17. You spent much of your time on social media, Zanu PF is working on the following :
(a) Pfumvudza will transform into 1.5 million rural votes, targeting rural households.
Argument: what do you have in your hands which guarantee that you will get 1 million youths vote? Absolutely nothing. Message alone of poverty does not translate into the vote, people want ZVINOBATIKA.
(b) Women rural empowerment projects backed by Women Bank, dishing out loans
(c) Command Agriculture – inputs, farm mechanisation, farm equipment, etc.
18. Message alone in politics is not enough, you need to empower people.
19. Don’t expect a bankruptcy opposition to win power. You need to mobilize voters. Why don’t you turn the opposition movement into a commercial brand? Did you get 2.3 million votes? No single vehicle for your movement?
20. In Zanu PF, they have the George Charambas, etc, they are masters of scheming, whom do you compare George Charamba within the opposition movement?
21. Statements like tinosvika Chete, tapinda tapinda won’t get you anywhere, study politics and the wave.
22. Finally, let me conclude by saying the current opposition structure does not inspire. If one is serious about confronting a regime like Zanu PF, there is a need to reshuffle particularly some of the bolts that need lubrication of ideas.
23. Posting on Facebook is not enough to get you a single vote.
2023 is likely to be 2013 scenario.
Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo is the Head of Zimbabwe Institute of Strategic Thinking – ZIST, and he can be contacted at [email protected]