Emmerson Mnangagwa's presidency to be tested on 30 July 2018

WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTIONS? Dark Horses, Spoilers and Kingmakers

By Dumisani O. Nkomo

In last week’s instalment, I analysed the chances of President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa’s prospects in the 30 July Presidential race. In this instalment I will focus on the chances of four other contenders for the presidency but more importantly assess the extent to which they will have an impact on the votes that Nelson Chamisa and Emmerson Mnangagwa will ultimately get. This year Zimbabwe has a record of 23 Presidential candidates with the nature of candidates ranging from brilliant to bizarre but in a democracy such as ours “all things may be permissible but not all things may be beneficial “as the Apostle Paul notes in his letter to the Romans”.

Undoubtedly, the electorate with some of the candidates’ names and parties for the first time in the voting booth and what an experience it will be, with the novel possibility of having textbook size ballot paper or will it be ballot booklet. Nonetheless it is essential for the electorate to know the calibre, capacity, craft competence and probability of winning of the various candidates on offer.

 

Assumptions for Strong Candidature

In an ideal world the qualities and ability of prospective candidates is the sole determining factor but in a country such as ours which some define as an emerging democracy, others as a fragile democracy, yet others say it’s a glorified securocracy; it may be a pie in the sky to assume that a mericrocratic democracy [as Brett Chulu would call it] is a possibility. A democratic meritocracy captures the essence of electing leaders or having leaders that are elected or chosen on merit and not necessarily on popularity. Popularity may not necessarily denote or translate into what some scholars describe as “craft competence” or the ability to deliver based on the availability of key skills and competencies.

Some of the essential strengths and competencies that are required by political players, more so those contending for the Presidency require in the Zimbabwean context are the following:

  1. Strong institutional presence and capacity epitomized by strong party structures at local level.
  2. Institutional “vote harvesting” capacity evidenced by fielding of candidates countrywide so as to harvest as many votes as possible.
  3. Relevance
  4. Electoral appeal and charisma
  5. Competence/ ability
  6. Social media impact
  7. Capacity to harness rural vote
  8. Youth Appeal

If we to use the above as a basis of assessing the chances and impact of electoral candidates it then leaves four other candidates in contention to be either dark horses to win, possible spoilers, vote splitters and or king makers in the event of a run off. Those in contention outside of Mnangwagwa and Chamisa then become Joyce Mujuru, Thokozani Khuphe, Nkosana Moyo and Ambrose Mutinhiri. These four candidates will significantly impact on electoral choices and the electoral chances of the two main contenders as they will eat into or provide alternatives to the two.

Importantly, it must be noted that a presidential candidate who is backed by a part with a presence in all or most of the constituencies generally stands a better chance than candidate who does not have the backing of a party with candidates in all or most constituencies. The general assumption is that a Presidential candidate with at least 150 candidates contesting at house of assembly level and about a thousand at local government level has more chances of harnessing votes since the various candidates at various levels will probably also campaign and harness votes for the party’s presidential candidate or preferred Presidential candidate.

Joyce Mujuru’s People’s Rainbow Coalition has House of Assembly in all provinces and only trails the M.D.C Alliance and Zanu P.F in this regard who are contesting in 209 and 210 House of Assembly constituencies. Joyce Mujuru therefore stands a huge chance of harnessing a significant number of votes due to the institutional capacity of her party to carry her campaign at Ward and Constituency level.

Her other strength is that she appears to be a mature alternative to Nelson Chamisa and has a better human rights record than Emmerson Mnangagwa as she was not out rightly fingered in human rights violations of the eighties in Matabeleland and the 2000 to 2008 violence. She has worked in government before as a vice President and was effective enough to warrant suspicions that she was a threat to former President Robert Mugabe’s throne. She will do well in the Mashonaland Central and probably Mashonaland East provinces in terms of number of votes.

She will be a beneficiary of Zimbabwe’s ethnocentric politics as she belongs to the Zezuru tribe which has deep roots in the Mashonaland provinces. The country’s patrichal culture which has seen the number of women candidates dwindling due to intimidation, violence and vote buying in most of the major political parties may not significantly affect her as she has historically earned a reputation of being a leading liberation war hero and later on vice President of choice. She is mature and has characteristics of a statesperson.

 

Weakness

She lacks charisma and popular appeal and projects lack of intellectual depth. She has not clearly articulated her dream or vision for a Zimbabwe of the future unlike Chamisa and E.D. I am not referring to manifestoes here but an ability to intuitively paint a picture of the Zimbabwe we want whenever given the opportunity. She will thus not appeal to the youth who currently constitute up to about 45% of the electorate. She was a cabinet minister from the eighties and to claim ignorance of Mugabe’s political and economic genocide would denote lack of critical thinking.

She failed to emerge as the leading opposition figure after she left ZANU PF at a time when many where beginning to look for a third way and this may exhibit lack of assertiveness and political inertia. She stands a good chance of coming in as a dark horse and upsetting the top two contenders and at least diving the ZANU P.F vote. She would be a king maker in the event of a run off and both Chamisa and Mnangagwa may try to court her if she does not make it in the first round.

 

Thokozani Khuphe

The M.D.C – T led by Thokozani Khuphe is fielding candidates in most provinces with fewer candidates in Mashonaland Central and the Midlands probably due to political pacts with other parties, possibly the P.R.C.

She has been an apparent victim of internal democracy weaknesses in the M.DC and has been subjected to verbal and physical abuse by her erstwhile foes. This however will not be sufficient in landing her the Presidency primarily because her party is not fielding candidates in all the House of Assembly constituencies and local government wards thus affecting her party’s institutional capacity to harvest or harness the necessary votes.

Khuphe is an experienced politician however who has served in government and has a great record of developmental service. Her key weaknesses are lack of popular appeal and destitution of relevance due to the Chamisa momentum and the E.D juggernaut. The problem with momentum is that it may not necessarily install the best candidate but it gathers pace and power for whoever has reins over it and in this case it is Chamisa and E d Mnangagwa.

Dr Thokozani Khuphe has a stately demeanour and would be a head of government but although this may be desirable this is highly unlikely. However, she lacks charisma and may not appeal to younger voters. She will be a victim of Zimbabwe’s tribal politics as a Ndebele. She has overcome the politics of patriachalism in the past and one hopes Zimbabwe rids itself off sexism and tribalism which have been blight on good leaders such as Khuphe, Priscilla Misihaimbwi to name a few. She will defiantly split the Chamisa vote and the confusion in the party names may work to her advantage. She cannot be wished away in an inclusive government or as a key ally in a run off.

 

Ambrose Mutinhiri

The reason why I place Mutinhiri and his fractured National Patriotic Front in the equation is because this party is fielding candidates countrywide and has enough internal knowledge of Zanu P.F to cause grief to Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU P.F. Obviously the main objective of the N.P. F is not to win the Presidential race but to ensure that E.D does not.

Institutionally Mutinhiri will be buoyed by the party’s strength in Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland East and West which have a combined 1687692 number of registered voters. Robert Mugabe is still relatively popular in the Mashonaland provinces and this will add impetus to Mutinhiri. The former Zipra commander however lacks charisma, appeal, initiative and relevance.

His military background comes in handy in the face of rising securocratic politics in Zimbabwe and definitely ethnic politics will work in his favour. However, as I said his aim is not necessarily to win the elections but to be a spoiler and hopefully grab a number of House of Assembly seats. He will divide the ZANU P.F Presidential vote. His party is experiencing internal fractures which may weaken his chances substantially. He will be a spoiler in this election.

Space and time does not permit me to significantly analyse the chances of Dr Nkosana Moyo and will be an injustice to this great man to commit a paragraph to him. To this end I will look at his chances and indeed his role in the next instalment with the introductory challenge being his party’s inability to field sufficient house of assembly candidates which according to my theory of institutional presence and a capacity significantly affect his chances. Let me do justice to him however and analyse that in the next instalment.

 

Conclusion

If we are to stick to the theory that Presidential candidates who are contesting in the most number of constituencies generally stand a better chance than those who have fewer House of Assembly candidates, then it becomes a logical conclusion that the race may be between Emmerson Mnangwagwa and Nelson Chamisa with Joyce Mujuru as a dark horse, Khuphe as a king maker, Mutininhiri as a spoiler and Nkosana Moyo being brilliant Presidential candidate but with a better chance in 2023 or 2028.

 

Dumisani Nkomo is the Chief Executive Officer of Habakkuk Trust. He writes here in his personal capacity. He can be contacted on email address Dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com




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